I’m planning a summer trip to Europe like many of you, and there’s a developing situation that could affect flights in the coming months. I’ve been hearing warnings for weeks, but nothing really made me pay attention until I watched a recent CNBC Squawk Box interview with Matt Smith, Kpler’s director of commodity research.
What he said got my attention. When asked whether a traveler heading to Europe this summer should be worried about cancellations, he said: “I would be a little concerned… If you were saying Asia, I’d be more worried.”
Then came the follow-up, are airlines actually going to start canceling flights?
“I think we’re going to get to that point.”
That’s not exactly reassuring.
And when asked how widespread this could get, he didn’t hold back:
“It’s going to be two things… they’re canceling because they don’t have the jet fuel to run the flights, but it’s also the cost.”
He added: “This is something that is coming. It’s a slow-motion car crash that we’re kind of sleepwalking through.”
What’s going on?
This isn’t just about oil prices—it’s really about jet fuel supply. Smith said global jet fuel exports have dropped from about 2 million barrels per day to roughly 1.3 million. And it’s not just one region causing the issue:
“It’s not just that you’re not getting jet fuel out of the Middle East… it’s the fact that Asia is not getting the crude that it needs to refine into jet fuel.” That’s where it starts to snowball.
“They’re trying to meet their domestic needs, and they’re struggling to meet export needs as well… it is a series of dominoes that are falling here.”
And jet fuel is just the beginning: “Jet is the first one to go… it’s going to spread across the globe.” We’re already seeing some impact. Roughly 12,000 flights (about 2 million seats) were canceled in May alone.
Airlines are already reacting
Airlines are already adjusting, and early moves suggest capacity could tighten if fuel pressures continue:
- Air France–KLM has warned of billions in additional fuel costs and is scaling back growth plans as expenses rise.
- Lufthansa Group has said it will reduce tens of thousands of short-haul flights over time, as part of broader network and cost adjustments.
- SAS (Scandinavian Airlines) has previously canceled flights during periods of high fuel prices, particularly on short-haul routes.
- IAG (British Airways parent company) has said it is not immune to fuel volatility and may adjust fares and capacity as needed.
- Other European carriers, including low-cost airlines, have introduced fare increases and fuel surcharges to help offset rising costs.
Individually, these aren’t shocking. Together, they start to paint a picture.
What this means for travelers
- Flight cancellations could increase, especially if this continues
- Airfares may rise as fuel costs climb
- Europe travel could be affected, though Asia may see bigger disruptions first
- Schedule changes may happen closer to departure
Travel tips
- Take the train for shorter trips
- Avoid tight connections—give yourself some buffer
- Book earlier flights in the day (they’re less likely to be canceled)
- Consider travel insurance that covers delays and cancellations
- Keep an eye on your flight status, especially within 72 hours of departure
Bottom line
You don’t need to cancel your trip. I’m not. But I am going to stay a little more flexible than usual—and keep a closer eye on things. This feels like one of those situations that could either settle down… or get worse pretty quickly.
