After a 43-day government shutdown that froze federal data releases, the Bureau of Labor Statistics finally issued the September jobs report; and it delivered a mixed picture.
Employers added 119,000 jobs, more than double expectations, yet the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, its highest level since early 2021. The report was scheduled for release on Oct. 3 but reflects conditions before the shutdown began, making it a snapshot of a potentially outdated economy.
Downward Revisions Undercut the “Strong” Headline Number
While the top-line job gain looked solid, economists quickly pointed to troubling details beneath the surface. July and August payrolls were revised down by 33,000, adding to a yearlong trend of weaker-than-reported job creation.
October Jobs Report Canceled, Leaving the Fed Without Key Data
The shutdown’s consequences didn’t end with delays: the BLS confirmed it will not produce a standalone October employment report because it was unable to collect household survey data.
Instead, October payrolls will be merged into November’s report, now rescheduled to Dec. 16; six days after the Federal Reserve’s final policy meeting of the year.
This leaves the Fed “flying blind,” with policymakers forced to set interest rates without clear visibility into how the job market evolved during the shutdown.
Private Data Suggests October Brought a Wave of Layoffs
Without official federal data, analysts turned to private-sector indicators; and the picture wasn’t encouraging.
Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported more than 150,000 job cuts in October, driven by aggressive cost-cutting and the accelerating use of artificial intelligence. Layoffs, coupled with slowing hiring, suggest the job market may have weakened more sharply than the September report indicates.
Industries Adding and Losing Jobs
The September data offers clues about which sectors are still growing.
Health care led the pack with 43,000 new jobs, continuing its multi-year hiring surge.
Food services and drinking places added 37,000 jobs, while social assistance gained 14,000.
But job losses piled up elsewhere.
Transportation and warehousing shed 25,000 positions, reflecting weaker freight demand and rising automation.
Federal government employment declined by another 3,000 after months of shutdown-related layoffs.
Most other major industries showed little movement, signaling broad stagnation.
Economists See Warning Signs Behind the Numbers
Even though 119,000 jobs would have been considered healthy in a prior era, the underlying trends concern many economists.
A steep drop in immigration has shrunk the labor supply, meaning the U.S. now needs only 30,000–50,000 jobs per month to keep pace with population growth; far fewer than in past years.
Despite this lower bar, the combination of weaker revisions, rising unemployment, and private-sector layoffs has many analysts arguing the labor market is entering a softening phase.
AI and Trade Policy Continue to Reshape Hiring
The rise of artificial intelligence is eliminating many entry-level roles, disproportionately affecting recent graduates and younger workers.
At the same time, uncertainty around Trump’s tariff policies; now under review by the Supreme Court has complicated hiring decisions for manufacturers and small businesses.
Economists say these twin forces are eroding job growth at the margins.
Fed Officials Split on Whether to Cut Rates Again
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates in both September and October to cushion a cooling economy. But policymakers appear divided heading into the December meeting.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said “some” members want to pause rate cuts to assess risks, while “several” were opposed to the recent cuts altogether. With the loss of October data, few officials feel confident about the short-term labor outlook.
Forecast: Fed Likely to Hold Rates Steady
Oxford Economics expects the Fed to keep its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.75%–4% in December, citing persistent inflation and indications that economic growth may be firmer than earlier in the year. Futures markets currently reflect near-unanimous expectations for a hold.
Trump Welcomes the Report as a Win for His Agenda
President Trump quickly celebrated the September numbers, calling them further evidence that his “America First” economic policies are delivering results.
The positive data is welcome news for President Trump who won the elections based on economic policies.
Official Account Highlights “America First” Wins
The official White House Rapid Response account posted on X “Over the past year: 2.5M native-born Americans GAINED employment; 670K foreign-born workers LOST employment.
3.4M native-born Americans JOINED the labor force; 708K foreign-born workers LEFT the labor force.
Under @POTUS, ALL job gains have gone to native-born workers.”
Press Secretary Contrasts Economic Numbers With Prior Admin
Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt noted that nearly all job gains came from the private sector and said wages are rising after what she described as a “$3,000 decline” in purchasing power during the Biden administration.
She framed the report as proof that Trump’s second-term agenda is gaining traction, despite criticism from economists who highlight deeper signs of cooling in the job market.
“In stark contrast to the disastrous Biden economy, almost all of these new jobs were in the private sector and went to American-born workers instead of illegal aliens,” Leavitt said in a statement.
“Wages for workers are continuing to rise, a reversal of the Biden years where private sector wages declined by about $3,000 because of the Democrats’ inflation crisis.
“This strong report is more proof that President Trump’s pro-growth, America First agenda is already making great progress, and it will continue to deliver positive results for American families and businesses.”
Democrats Sound Alarm Over Rising Costs and Slowing Job Growth
Democrats seized on the rise in unemployment, arguing the report shows persistent affordability problems for families.
“It’s clear that this economy isn’t working for working people,” said Representative Susie Lee, a Nevada Democrat, in a post on X.
“Tariffs are driving up food prices, and Republicans in Congress are standing by and allowing this President to increase costs for American families and small businesses.”
Representative Glenn Ivey, a Democrat from Maryland, said in a post on X that Trump and Republicans “keep proving they don’t care about working people. Their reckless agenda is raising costs, spiking unemployment, and dragging our economy toward a recession.”
The critique underscores how the jobs report has quickly become another flashpoint in Washington’s ongoing debate over inflation and economic direction.
A Labor Market at a Turning Point
With upward unemployment, downward revisions, rising layoffs, and a missing October jobs report, the U.S. labor market appears to be entering a period of transition and uncertainty.
The September numbers offered just enough strength for supporters of the administration to claim progress, while giving economists and political opponents ample reason for concern.
With limited data and elevated inflation, the stakes for the Federal Reserve and for the broader economy have rarely been higher heading into year’s end.
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Treasury Hikes I Bond Rate to 4.03%, Yet Fixed Portion Drops — Here’s What It Means for Savers
The U.S. Treasury has announced a new 4.03% rate for Series I savings bonds, slightly higher than the previous 3.98%. But beneath the bump lies a subtle setback: the fixed-rate portion has slipped to 0.9% from 1.1%. That quiet change could reduce long-term returns for investors hoping to lock in inflation-protected income, even as I bonds remain one of the safest options for conservative savers.
Treasury Hikes I Bond Rate to 4.03%, Yet Fixed Portion Drops — Here’s What It Means for Savers
Millions Could Miss Out on a New $1,000 Federal Retirement Match. Check If You Qualify
Beginning in 2027, millions of lower- and moderate-income savers will qualify for what financial researchers are bluntly calling “free money.” The new federal Saver’s Match; created under the 2022 SECURE 2.0 Act will replace today’s underused Saver’s Credit with a far more powerful benefit: up to $1,000 deposited directly into your retirement account every year. Morningstar’s early modeling suggests that eligible participants could see retirement wealth jump as much as 12%, a remarkable return for a program few Americans have even heard of.
Millions Could Miss Out on a New $1,000 Federal Retirement Match. Check If You Qualify
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John Dealbreuin came from a third world country to the US with only $1,000 not knowing anyone; guided by an immigrant dream. In 12 years, he achieved his retirement number.
He started Financial Freedom Countdown to help everyone think differently about their financial challenges and live their best lives. John resides in the San Francisco Bay Area enjoying nature trails and weight training.
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